Monday's Real Open: ISM at 10, Palantir After the Close
August opens with July ISM Manufacturing at 10 a.m. Eastern Monday and Palantir reporting after the close. Map the week before the open sells you one color.
The week does not wait for a clean Monday vibe
August opens on a calendar, not a blank page. Before the next jobs report lands on Friday, the first business day of the week already packs two high-signal events: the July ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on Monday, and Palantir Technologies reporting second-quarter results after the U.S. close.
If you only watch index color into the open, you will miss the order of operations. ISM is a factory pulse. Palantir is a software and government-plus-commercial AI tape test. They are not the same trade.
ISM in plain English
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers. A reading above 50 means expansion. Below 50 means contraction. June printed 53.3. The street is looking for another expansion print for July, with many desks watching whether new orders and prices paid cool or reheat after a noisy summer on energy and trade talk.
Why it matters this week: a sticky prices-paid subindex keeps the inflation argument alive under a Fed that just held with a hawk-leaning split. A clean expansion print with softer prices is a different mood for cyclicals and the long end of the curve.
Palantir's scheduled print
Palantir announced on July 13 that results for the quarter ended June 30 will be released Monday, August 3, after the U.S. close, with a webcast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Company guidance for the quarter sat near $1.80 billion in revenue. Street EPS marks cluster around the low-to-mid 30-cent range depending on the data provider.
What the market will actually parse is less the headline beat-or-miss and more the commercial growth path, remaining performance obligations, and whether the AI software narrative still clears a high bar after a loud megacap earnings week.
A simple Monday checklist
- Read ISM before you rewrite the whole week. One factory print does not set August. It does set the morning's macro tone.
- Separate cyclicals from AI software. A strong ISM can help industrials while Palantir still lives or dies on its own growth story after the bell.
- Leave room for Tuesday. Caterpillar, Merck, AMD, and a long earnings list follow fast. Monday is chapter one, not the whole book.
- Jobs week is still the back half. Friday's employment report remains the heavy macro weight. Do not spend all your attention budget on Monday alone.
Pocket change
Saturday is for mapping the week, not predicting every tick. Write ISM and Palantir on the same card. Decide which lane your risk actually belongs to before the open tries to sell you one index color.
This letter is not a recommendation on Palantir, the ISM trade, or any ETF. It is a calendar note with a process attached.
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