Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Markets

Small caps are lying to you (and that's the setup)

Every rally begins with a lie. The Russell 2000 just told a big one.

Bull statue
Bull statue

A 3% pop in the Russell is not a bull market. It's a bear-market rally, right up until it isn't.

Read the flows

Options volume in IWM ran 2.1x its 20-day average. That is not retail. That is a fund covering shorts into strength - which is exactly the fuel this thing needs to keep going.

The trade

One setup, no cute size. Long IWM into the CPI print with a stop under Wednesday's low. If the print cooperates, you're in the sweet spot of a squeeze. If it doesn't, you're out for a scratch.

#russell#options

More from Markets