The macro story nobody is telling

The tape wanders

Every week has a headline. This week's headline was the Fed. But the story that actually matters is playing out under the surface - in the dollar, in credit spreads, and in a set of biotech names nobody is talking about.

The dollar rolled over

When DXY breaks and stays broken, every other trade re-rates. Emerging markets, gold, commodities. All of it.

GLP-1: the second wave

The first wave was Novo and Lilly. The second wave is contract manufacturers, delivery mechanisms, and the cardiac & kidney adjacencies.

Credit is telling you something

Spreads on high-yield have quietly compressed. That is not a recession tape. That is a soft-landing tape.

- Garrett Baldwin